Alpaca paper intelligence

ConvictionSpread

Market closed
Decision capture/shadow-4d56…228f

A bearish thesis survived the critic. The order did not.

CAPTURED 01 SEP 2026 · 15:39 ET

Paper shadow · Alpaca Indicative

Bearish30 MIN VALIDITY

0.95

confidence

Agent thesis

SPY is in a bear regime with fast and slow momentum aligned. Express the view with a defined-risk put spread, not an uncapped directional position.

regime = bearfast trend = −0.64%slow trend = −1.32%relative volume = 0.96×

Critic approved

No deterministic contradiction exceeded the rejection threshold.

Invalidation

SPY closes above $766.21

Decision funnel
Every narrowing step is deterministic.
SPY
  1. 323

    normalized candidates

    Passed to next gate

  2. 316

    liquidity eligible

    Passed to next gate

  3. 11,534

    valid pairs compared

    Passed to next gate

  4. 1

    defined-risk spread

    Passed to next gate

  5. 0

    orders submitted

    Risk boundary held

SPY

$760.98

reference price

765 / 755

PUT

selected vertical

$386

MAX LOSS

one contract

$614

MAX PROFIT

before costs

Submission blocked
Maximum allowed quantity: 1 · Approved quantity: 0
  • Execution is disabled
  • Dry-run mode cannot submit orders
  • Local and broker state are not reconciled
  • Entry is blocked near market close
Safety proof
The dashboard reports broker truth; it never implies a fill.

Paper only

GET-only data

No order payload

No account ID

Spread anatomy
Conservative executable prices, before fees and slippage.
Delta selected

Buy to open

765 Put

SPY260915P00765000

Ask$7.74
$10 WIDTH

Sell to open

755 Put

SPY260915P00755000

Bid$3.88
Net debit
$3.86
Breakeven
$761.14
Expiration
15 Sep
DTE
14 days
Signal snapshot
Feature set 2026.08.24.v1 · 98 source bars
Bear regime
Fast trend−0.64%
Slow trend−1.32%
Relative volume0.96×
Realized vol0.45%

Counter-evidence retained

Realized volatility 0.45% · ATR $5.23 · relative strength neutral. The model cannot delete facts that weaken its own thesis.

Decision trace
One decision, ordered evidence, no hidden execution step.

  1. Market observed

    98 completed daily bars · IEX spot $760.98

  2. Thesis proposed

    Bear regime with aligned features · confidence 0.95

  3. Critic challenged

    Approved with counter-evidence retained

  4. Spread selected

    765/755 put vertical · delta method

  5. Risk decided

    Candidate blocked · no broker write

System health
Evidence-backed status at capture time.
Alpaca paper APIHealthy
IEX stock feedHealthy
Indicative option feed323 snapshots
Alpaca MCP profile32 read tools
Broker reconciliationIntentionally off
Order gatewayNot installed